A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
